Estimating abortion rates from contraceptive failure rates via risk compensation: a mathematical model

Please check out our paper entitled in Ateneo Physics News:

Estimating abortion rates from contraceptive failure rates via risk compensation: a mathematical model

Or in Google Plus:

Estimating abortion rates from contraceptive failure rates via risk compensation: a mathematical model

This paper should have been finished last January.  But because of my other writing projects, I postponed the revision to two or three weeks ago.  (So my readers may notice that I don’t reply much to comments or post anything new). I hope this paper would help foster a more sober dialogue on the RH Bill, because both pro- and anti-RH bill groups can use its theoretical framework to prove their statements that the more effective contraceptives would result to less abortions (pro-RH Bill) or more abortions (anti-RH Bill).  Happy Feast of the Annunciation to all.

Here’s the abstract:


In this paper, we propose a set of hypotheses for deriving the abortion rate as a function of the intercourse interval in weeks, the number of weeks since the start of rst intercourse, the number weeks of pregnancy, the number of weeks of breastfeeding, and the contraceptive failure rate. We also propose risk compensation as feedback: the intercourse interval is proportional to the mth power of the contraceptive failure rate. We show that for di erent values of m, the abortion rate may become smaller, bigger, or remain the same compared to the case when no contraceptives are used. Thus, one way to settle the RH Bill debate is to determine the correct value of m derived from accurate data on the reproductive health
parameters of a large sample of the female population. If this data is not available, it is better not to take risk in approving the bill, because there is a possibility of increasing our national abortion rate through the promotion of contraceptives. Instead, it may be better to use alternative methods to manage our population and reduce our abortion rate to zero by promoting chastity before marriage, late marriages, and breastfeeding|and accepting each child conceived as a gift and not as a burden.



March 25 Feast of the Annunciation and Rally for the Unborn at Quirino Grandstand

In solidarity with the Catholic Church, THE FEAST MANILA will fully support the FILIPINOS! UNITE UNDER GOD FOR LIFE! INTERFAITH RALLY The Feast of the Annunciation/Day of the Unborn this Friday (March 25, 2011) 4:00pm-9:00m Quirino Grandstand There will be NO FEAST this Friday at SM City Manila Cinema 4. Instead, we invite The Feast Manila (TFM) attendees and servants to attend the rally! TFM delegates shall meet near Manila Hotel at 3:00pm. Please wear LIGHT BLUE shirt/top. The mass shall be concelebrated by the only 3 Filipino Cardinals: Gaudencio Cardinal Rosales of Manila Ricardo Cardinal Vidal of Cebu and Jose Cardinal Sanchez based in Rome with the other bishops and priests. Our very own, Bro. Bo Sanchez, shall give a testimony/declaration. Please feel free to forward this email to all TFM attendees and servants.




Specialist in Obstetrics and Gynecology
Expert in Pediatric and Adolescent Gynecology
Unit 203 MJDT Building #1715 G. Tuazon St.
corner V.G. Cruz St. Sampaloc, Manila
Open DAILY (except Sunday) 3:00pm – 7:00pm
Clinic #: +632 4875242 Mobile #: +63917 8045630

Five novices accepted to the Jesuit Novitiate on the Feast of the Annunciation 2010

On the feast of the Annunciation, March 25, after morning Mass and breakfast at Arvisu House Jesuit Prenovitiate, the candidates received the results of their application to the Jesuit novitiate.

The following are accepted for the May 30, 2010 Entrance Day:

Jose Ma. Joaquin B. Bunag
22 years old
Pasig City
BS Psychology, 2010
Ateneo de Manila University

Ernesto R. Chua, Jr.
34 years old
Santiago City, Isabela
BSEd Biology, 1997
University of Santo Tomas

Marlon T. Fabros
24 years old
Calamba, Laguna
BS Statistics, 2007
University of the Philippines – Diliman

Ricardo E. Flores, Jr.
25 years old
Mandaue City, Cebu
BSEd Religious Education, 2006
University of San Carlos – Cebu

Mamert B. Manus
33 years old
Cagayan de Oro City
AB Interdisciplinary Studies, 1997
Ateneo de Manila University
Bachelor of Business Administration, 2004
& Master of Business Administration, 2005
Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University, Japan

Eight young men have also been accepted to the candidacy program for the next school year as of March 27. They include a college math teacher, a high school chemistry teacher, a former president of the Ateneo Christian Life Community (ACLC), a leader of the Youth for Christ (YFC), an IT professional formerly based in Singapore, a staff member of the NGO Hapinoy, a Proctor& Gamble employee and an MBA graduate of the Asian Insitute of Management.

These candidates will live in community, guided by Jesuit formators, either at Arvisu House in Loyola Heights, Quezon City, or at Haggerty House at Xavier University, Cagayan de Oro.

Twelve more applications to the candidacy program are being processed. These candidates will begin the prenovitiate program this coming May. We ask for your prayers for these young men.

– Fr. Xavier Olin, SJ
National Vocation Director