Crowd size estimate of the Prayer Rally last Aug 4, 2012 at EDSA against the RH Bill

My estimate of the crowd size at the prayer rally last Aug. 4, 2012 at EDSA is about 60,000 at its peak during the mass that started at about 5:00 pm. I am using the equivalent rectangle analysis, based on pictures by Anna Cosio posted in Carlos Palad’s Catholic Position on RH Bill:

Length = 885 m
Width = 17 m
Area = 15,045 sq.m
Density = 4 persons / sq.m.
Crowd = 60,180 persons

The estimate is based on the following rules from wired.com:

In a loose crowd, where people are at an arms length of each other, figure about 10 square feet of space per person.
In a tighter crowd, it’s about half that, or 5 square feet.
In a packed crowd, it’s more like 2.5 square feet.

In terms of square meters:

loose crowd: 0.92 sq.m./person or 1.1 persons/sq.m.
tighter crowd: 0.464 sq.m./person or 2.2 persons/sq.m.
packed crowd: 0.232 sq.m/perso or 4.3 persons/sq.m.

Definitely, it could not be 1 person/sq.m., because the crowd at the rally is not loosely packed.  Even if one uses 2 persons/sq.m. for a tight crowd, that is still 30,000 persons. If 3 persons/sq.m., that is 45,000 persons. These are beyond the 7,000 or 10,000 persons estimated in newspapers.  And I haven’t yet included in my estimates those who were staying at the overpass (as I did) and those who are in Robinson’s Galleria to refresh themselves or go to the comfort rooms.  The line for the women in comfort rooms is long even at 3 pm.

Please correct my analysis if you see mistakes in estimates such as in the area coverage. We need pictures to get a really good data on crowd size, preferably one single picture in aerial view. Note that crowd size estimates vary according to the time it was taken:

  • 1:30 p.m. Hundreds of people according to Inquirer
  • 2:30 p.m. Police estimates 10,000 people according to GMA News.
  • 5:00 p.m. My estimate is 60,000 people.

Some estimates published in newspapers have no time data:

Crowd size at Aug 4, 2012 EDSA rally is about 60,000

Crowd size at Aug 4, 2012 EDSA rally is about 60,000

About Quirino M. Sugon Jr
Theoretical Physicist in Manila Observatory

6 Responses to Crowd size estimate of the Prayer Rally last Aug 4, 2012 at EDSA against the RH Bill

  1. Dr. Sugon, I think the assumption that there are 4 persons per sq. m is too much even for those who doesn’t have an umbrella.

  2. Quirino M. Sugon Jr says:

    Hi Arvin,

    The estimate is based on these rules from wired.com:

    In a loose crowd, where people are at an arms length of each other, figure about 10 square feet of space per person.
    In a tighter crowd, it’s about half that, or 5 square feet.
    In a packed crowd, it’s more like 2.5 square feet.

    In terms of square meters:

    loose crowd: 0.92 sq.m./person or 1.1 persons/sq.m.
    tighter crowd: 0.464 sq.m./person or 2.2 persons/sq.m.
    packed crowd: 0.232 sq.m/perso or 4.3 persons/sq.m.

    Even if you use 2 persons/sq.m., that is still 30,000 persons. If 3 persons/sq.m., that is 45,000 persons. These are beyond the 7,000 or 10,000 persons estimated in newspapers.

  3. Luz says:

    Dr.Sugon maybe they are not just aware.. Teach them more, they are concentrating in correcting the imperfections of the Catholics rather than themselves..

  4. Dr. Sugon, do you know what method some authorities used to arrived at a suspicious count such as 7,000 and 10,000?

  5. Quirino M. Sugon Jr says:

    Arvin,

    I think they counted before 3 pm.

  6. Pingback: Pro-RH Bill crowd at Ateneo de Manila during the Anti-RH Bill prayer rally at EDSA « Monk's Hobbit

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