Crowd size estimate of the Prayer Rally last Aug 4, 2012 at EDSA against the RH Bill
August 5, 2012 6 Comments
My estimate of the crowd size at the prayer rally last Aug. 4, 2012 at EDSA is about 60,000 at its peak during the mass that started at about 5:00 pm. I am using the equivalent rectangle analysis, based on pictures by Anna Cosio posted in Carlos Palad’s Catholic Position on RH Bill:
Length = 885 m
Width = 17 m
Area = 15,045 sq.m
Density = 4 persons / sq.m.
Crowd = 60,180 persons
The estimate is based on the following rules from wired.com:
In a loose crowd, where people are at an arms length of each other, figure about 10 square feet of space per person.
In a tighter crowd, it’s about half that, or 5 square feet.
In a packed crowd, it’s more like 2.5 square feet.
In terms of square meters:
loose crowd: 0.92 sq.m./person or 1.1 persons/sq.m.
tighter crowd: 0.464 sq.m./person or 2.2 persons/sq.m.
packed crowd: 0.232 sq.m/perso or 4.3 persons/sq.m.
Definitely, it could not be 1 person/sq.m., because the crowd at the rally is not loosely packed. Even if one uses 2 persons/sq.m. for a tight crowd, that is still 30,000 persons. If 3 persons/sq.m., that is 45,000 persons. These are beyond the 7,000 or 10,000 persons estimated in newspapers. And I haven’t yet included in my estimates those who were staying at the overpass (as I did) and those who are in Robinson’s Galleria to refresh themselves or go to the comfort rooms. The line for the women in comfort rooms is long even at 3 pm.
Please correct my analysis if you see mistakes in estimates such as in the area coverage. We need pictures to get a really good data on crowd size, preferably one single picture in aerial view. Note that crowd size estimates vary according to the time it was taken:
- 1:30 p.m. Hundreds of people according to Inquirer
- 2:30 p.m. Police estimates 10,000 people according to GMA News.
- 5:00 p.m. My estimate is 60,000 people.
Some estimates published in newspapers have no time data: