Estimating abortion rates from contraceptive failure rates via risk compensation: a mathematical model

Please check out our paper entitled in Ateneo Physics News:

Estimating abortion rates from contraceptive failure rates via risk compensation: a mathematical model

Or in Google Plus:

Estimating abortion rates from contraceptive failure rates via risk compensation: a mathematical model

This paper should have been finished last January.  But because of my other writing projects, I postponed the revision to two or three weeks ago.  (So my readers may notice that I don’t reply much to comments or post anything new). I hope this paper would help foster a more sober dialogue on the RH Bill, because both pro- and anti-RH bill groups can use its theoretical framework to prove their statements that the more effective contraceptives would result to less abortions (pro-RH Bill) or more abortions (anti-RH Bill).  Happy Feast of the Annunciation to all.

Here’s the abstract:

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a set of hypotheses for deriving the abortion rate as a function of the intercourse interval in weeks, the number of weeks since the start of rst intercourse, the number weeks of pregnancy, the number of weeks of breastfeeding, and the contraceptive failure rate. We also propose risk compensation as feedback: the intercourse interval is proportional to the mth power of the contraceptive failure rate. We show that for di erent values of m, the abortion rate may become smaller, bigger, or remain the same compared to the case when no contraceptives are used. Thus, one way to settle the RH Bill debate is to determine the correct value of m derived from accurate data on the reproductive health
parameters of a large sample of the female population. If this data is not available, it is better not to take risk in approving the bill, because there is a possibility of increasing our national abortion rate through the promotion of contraceptives. Instead, it may be better to use alternative methods to manage our population and reduce our abortion rate to zero by promoting chastity before marriage, late marriages, and breastfeeding|and accepting each child conceived as a gift and not as a burden.

 

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About Quirino M. Sugon Jr
Theoretical Physicist in Manila Observatory

2 Responses to Estimating abortion rates from contraceptive failure rates via risk compensation: a mathematical model

  1. blackshama says:

    Your link is dead! Can I have a live link to your paper? I will have to comment strictly on what you have written in your abstract.While it may be possible to say that increased contraception rates may cause increased abortion rates, this has to be contrasted with what the abortion rate is if contraceptives are not available, only then we can use the precautionary principle The information on abortion rate when contraceptives are not available should be available from the DOH or from the Philippine OB-gyne society.

    Since in science we should have no reference to theological views, it may be best to rewrite your last statement in your abstract. A better way to put is is this “promote sexual abstinence before marriage, monogamy when married, and natural methods of birth spacing if considering children”

  2. Quirino M. Sugon Jr says:

    Blackshama,

    Please check out my photo album in Google Plus:

    https://plus.google.com/u/0/photos/104887715369634785296/albums/5727126140401036481

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