Research problem: “The 60-30-10 phenomenon in senatorial elections: Is this simply an artifact of law of large numbers?”

I. STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Dr. Felix Muga III showed that the total votes of Team PNOY (12), UNA (9), and other candidates (12) follow the 60-30-10 pattern for all canvass times. COMELEC explains this phenomenon as simply the result of the law of large numbers. Our aim then is to verify this claim of COMELEC by changing the elements of each 12-9-12 grouping and see if a similar constant ratio of a:b:c still holds for each canvass.

II. METHODOLOGY

A. Listing the Combinations

You have three bins: _ _ _. The first bin has 12 candidates. The second bin has 9 candidates. And the last bin has 12 candidates. The number of combinations for the first bin regardless of permutations or rearrangements is C_1 = 33!/((33-12)!12!) = 33!/(21!12!). Once you have chosen the elements of the first bin, the number of combinations left for the second bin regardless of permutations is C_2 = 21!/((21-9)!9!) = C_2 = 21!/(12!9!). And once you have chosen the elements of the second bin, the number of combinations left for the third bin is C_3 = 12!/((12-12)!12!) = 12!/(0!12!) = 1. Thus, the total number of combinations of 33 senators placed in 12-9-12 bins is

C = C_1C_2C_3 = [33!/(21!12!)][21!/(12!9!)][1] = 33!21!/(21!12!12!9!) = 33!/(12!12!9!) = 1.0429×10^(14).

This listing cannot anymore be done by hand.

B. Computing the ratios

For each combination of candidates in the 12-9-12 bins, compute the total number of votes B_1 in each bin 1, the total number of votes B_2 in bin 2, and the total number of votes B_3 in bin 3. Define the vote vector

V = [B_1, B_2, B_3]/(B_1 + B_2 + B_3) = (b_1, b_2, b_3),

where b_1, b_2, and b_3 are greater than 0 but less than 1. We can see that the only linearly independent variables are b_1 and b_2, because b_3 = 1 – b_1 – b_2. Plot the b_1 and b_2 in the x and y axis. Trace the path of the (b_1, b_2) point as a function of integer canvass time t. If the b_1:b_2 ratio is fairly constant, then the plot will look like a fuzzy ball of a particular radius. Measure the radius of the smallest ball that contains all the points. Alternatively, one may get the root-mean-square value of the distances of the points from the centroid and use this RMS value as the radius.

C. The Bubble Chart

We now have a table with columns defined by (combination in bin 1, combination in bin 2, b_01, b_02, R_0), where (b_01, b_02) is the centroid or the average percentage values of each bin . We plot (b_01, b_02, R_0) in a bubble chart.

D. Clustering

We cluster the bubbles according to bubble radius. We use the 2D standard deviation (or RMS value) of the percentages Team Pinoy-UNA-Others combination as a unit of measurement. We classify bubbles according to sizes and we make a histogram. We compute the probability that a normalized bubble radius is between 0 and 1, between 1 and 2, between 2 and 3, and so on. If the probability for the normalized bubble radius is at its peak at 1, then we have reason to believe that what COMELEC says is true: it is just the law of large numbers. But if the peak is elsewhere and farther from 1, then we have a reason to doubt COMELEC’s statement.

III. DATA

I don’t have data for each canvass. This is simply the number of votes counted for each candidate during each canvass.

IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

I need the help of a programmer.

May 2013 senatorial elections: regional bulwarks and weak areas of senatorial candidates

We compute the percentage of votes per senatorial candidate. We then sum these percentages and divide by the number of senators (33) to obtain the average percentage of votes received by each candidate per region. We also computed the standard deviation from this average. We get the difference between the actual percentage received by each candidate per region and the said average percentage of votes. We divide the result by the standard deviation per region so that the percentage differences are measured in terms of standard deviations. With this result, we can classify regions according to their strength of support for each senatorial candidate using the following color scheme:

red: 1 < s : very strong support (includes s = 1)
yellow: 0 < s < 1: strong support
green: -1 < s < 0: weak support
blue: s < -1: very weak support (includes s = -1)

Strength of support for each candidate per region in units of standard deviation from the average percentage of votes obtained by all the senatorial candidates per region

JC de los Reyes and the Ignatian Tradition: Politics as a vocation

JC de los Reyes before the image of the Divine Mercy

Meet John Carlos (JC) de los Reyes, senatorial candidate of Ang Kapatiran Party.

JC studied in Ateneo de Manila Grade School of the Jesuit Fathers and then in De La Salle Santiago Zobel School of the La Salle Brothers. In college, he took up AB in Theology at the Franciscan University of Steubenville.  In 1999 he finished his post-graduate studies in Public Administration in University of the Philippines and in 2005 he finished his Law Degree in St. Louis University in Baguio City.

In this article, I shall focus only on JC’s Ignatian roots and his view of politics as a vocation.  (Hopefully, in another article, I shall write on JC’s Lasallian roots and his view on empowerment through entrepreneurship).  I shall frame the article as a response to a series of questions.

Introduction: Jesuit System of Education

Jesuit-run schools are outgrowths of the need to train the next generation of Jesuits.  Since many parents also want their children to receive the same training as the Jesuits, the parents enrolled their children in Jesuit universities, and the Society of Jesus adapted to this new apostolate.  That is why Ateneans in their early years are grounded in the Catechism and the recitation of the Rosary.  Mary is the model and all Ateneans are slowly transformed into soldiers who shall offer their sword–their time, talents, and treasures–to our Lady, as St. Ignatius did at Montserrat in March 1522.  Indeed, the Ateneo’s Alma Mater song is none other but the Song for Mary: “Mary for you!  For your white and blue!  We pray you’ll keep us, Mary, constantly true!  We pray you’ll keep us, Mary, faithful to you!”

But to be a true soldier of Mary and companion of Christ, an Atenean must be intellectually prepared for such a task.  He must study as St. Ignatius studied in University of Paris–Grammar (Latin), Literature, Philosophy, and Theology.  Thus, an Atenean must be able to write lucid prose, dissect a poem, read original philosophical and theological texts, and discuss a thesis statements in oral exams.  It’s the rigor of thought sharpened by years of training.  Jesuit education is a system of education born out of decades of Jesuit experimentation on educational theory–what works and what doesn’t in the actual classroom with data from all Jesuit schools around the world.  The results of this experiments were distilled into the Ratio Studiorum of 1599, also known in full as the Ratio atque Institutio Studiorum Societatis Iesu (“The Official Plan for Jesuit Education”).  It is a guide for how a Jesuit school is run and how teachers should teach different subjects.  It is a guide that remains in force today, albeit with some modifications, in all Jesuit schools, including the Ateneo de Manila University.

Question 1: Is JC de los Reyes a true Atenean?

He is.  His elementary education in Ateneo de Manila Grade School with the Jesuits suffices.  As the Jesuits would say: “Give me the child for seven years, and I will give you the man.”  So even if JC has not undergone college in Ateneo and trained by the Jesuits to read the classics from Aristotle to Aquinas to Kant, JC has studied the works of these authors more than the average Atenean: JC studied them when he took up his AB in Theology in the Franciscan University of Steubenville, one of the most Orthodox Catholic Universities in the US.  That’s Magis.  That’s more.

Question 2: What’s an Atenean like JC de los Reyes doing in a Franciscan University?

Oh, why is our Jesuit Pope named Francis? When St. Ignatius was recuperating after being hit by a cannonball, he read the “Imitation of Christ” by Thomas a Kempis and the lives of the saints, which made him wish to imitate the heroic lives of saints such as St. Francis of Assisi.  When St. Ignatius reached the Holy Land, hoping to settle there and convert the Muslims, the Franciscans sent him back to Europe.  And from this setback arose the Jesuit mission of Counter-Reformation and the establishment of Jesuit Schools throughout Europe.  By 1739, there were 669 Jesuit schools throughout the world.  The bond between Jesuits and Franciscans is deep.

JC de los Reyes (right) with his uncle, Cardinal Chito Tagle (left)

Question 3: There is no doubt that JC de los Reyes would be a good philosopher or theologian.  But politics is a different thing.  To be a man and woman for others, you need competence.  Is JC de los Reyes competent to be a senator?  

For Plato, the ideal ruler is the Philosopher-King as stated in his book, The Republic.  Thus, to be a philosopher suffices to be a senator.  As Socrates said in Plato’s Republic:

Inasmuch as philosophers only are able to grasp the eternal and unchangeable, and those who wander in the region of the many and variable are not philosophers, I must ask you which of the two classes should be the rulers of our State?

The Philosophers, of course.  And Socrates continued with his proposed definitions on what it is to be a philosopher:

 Let us suppose that philosophical minds always love knowledge of a sort which shows them the eternal nature not varying from generation and corruption….And further, I said, let us agree that they are lovers of all true being; there is no part whether greater or less, or more or less honorable, which they are willing to renounce; as we said before of the lover and the man of ambition…. And if they are to be what we were describing, is there not another quality which they should also possess?… Truthfulness: they will never intentionally receive into their minds falsehood, which is their detestation, and they will love the truth….He whose desires are drawn toward knowledge in every form will be absorbed in the pleasures of the soul, and will hardly feel bodily pleasure–I mean, if he be a true philosopher and not a sham one….Such a one is sure to be temperate and the reverse of covetous; for the motives which make another man desirous of having and spending, have no place in his character….Another criterion of the philosophical nature has also to be considered….Then, besides other qualities, we must try to find a naturally well-proportioned and gracious mind, which will move spontaneously toward the true being of everything…. Well, and do not all these qualities, which we have been enumerating, go together, and are they not, in a manner, necessary to a soul, which is to have a full and perfect participation of being?…And must not that be a blameless study which he only can pursue who has the gift of a good memory, and is quick to learn–noble, gracious, the friend of truth, justice, courage, temperance, who are his kindred?…And to men like him, I said, when perfected by years and education, and to these only you will entrust the State.

That’s JC de los Reyes: the philosopher who aspires to be a senator.  But JC never contented himself with the study of Philosophy or Theology.  He wishes to be a competent public servant.  That is why he studied Bachelor of Laws in the University of the Philippines and did post-graduate studies in Public Administration at St. Louis University in Baguio City.  That’s Magis.  That’s more.

Question 4: Does JC de los Reyes subscribe to Liberation Theology?

Yes, but only within the bounds set by Vatican, as defined by the Instruction on Certain Aspects of the “Theology of Liberation” which was signed by Cardinal Ratzinger (now Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI) when he was the head of the Congregation for Doctrine and Faith.  The Instruction concludes:

The words of Paul VI in his “Profession of Faith”, express with full clarity the faith of the Church, from which one cannot deviate without provoking, besides spiritual disaster, new miseries and new types of slavery. “We profess our faith that the Kingdom of God, begun here below in the Church of Christ, is not of this world, whose form is passing away, and that its own growth cannot be confused with the progress of civilization, of science, and of human technology, but that it consists in knowing ever more deeply the unfathomable riches of Christ, to hope ever more strongly in things eternal, to respond ever more ardently to the love of God, to spread ever more widely grace and holiness among men. But it is this very same love which makes the Church constantly concerned for the true temporal good of mankind as well. Never ceasing to recall to her children that they have no lasting dwelling here on earth, she urges them also to contribute, each according to his own vocation and means, to the welfare of their earthly city, to promote justice, peace and brotherhood among men, to lavish their assistance on their brothers, especially on the poor and the most dispirited. The intense concern of the Church, the bride of Christ, for the needs of mankind, their joys and their hopes, their pains and their struggles, is nothing other than the great desire to be present to them in order to enlighten them with the light of Christ, and join them all to Him, their only Savior. It can never mean that the Church is conforming to the things of this world, nor that she is lessening the earnestness with which she awaits her Lord and the eternal Kingdom.” (Emphasis mine.)

Ang Kapatiran Senatorial candidates. From left to right: Marwil Llasos, JC de los Reyes, and Lito Yap David.

Question 5.  Is this passage where Ang Kapatiran Party got its name?

Brotherhood among men.  That’s what the Ang Kapatiran Party is all about: the brotherhood who “lavish their assistance on their brothers, especially on the poor and the most dispirited.”  That’s why JC de los Reyes joined the Ang Kapatiran Party: in order to serve the poor, not within the framework of class struggle as espoused by the Marxist Left–many of whom are now occupying positions of power in Pres. Noynoy Aquino’s administration–but within the framework of Catholic Social Doctrine as expressed in papal documents such as “Mater et Magistra,” “Pacem in Terris,” “Populorum progressio,” “Evangelii nuntiandi,” “Octogesima adveniens”, “Redemptor hominis”, “Dives in misericordia”,  ”Laborem exercens,” and Second Vatican Council’s “Gaudium et Spes.”

Whether Ang Kapatiran Party got its name from this passage of the Instruction is not known.  But the concept of brotherhood of men is as old as Christianity itself.  First, we are all brothers and sisters because our Faith teaches us that we all came from the same parents: Adam and Eve.  Second, all baptized Christians become adopted sons and daughters of God, so that we call Christ as our brother and God as “Abba” or Father.  That is why, during the Mass, we have the courage to pray the “Our Father”.

Question 6. There is a useful concept in Liberation Theology: structures of sin. What for JC de los Reyes and the Ang Kapatiran Party are the structures of sin in Philippine Politics?

As stated in Cardinal Ratzinger’s Instruction:

Structures, whether they are good or bad, are the result of man’s actions and so are consequences more than causes. The root of evil, then, lies in free and responsible persons who have to be converted by the grace of Jesus Christ in order to live and act as new creatures in the love of neighbor and in the effective search for justice, self-control, and the exercise of virtue.

It is the duty of the Church to convert each man to Christ.  For its part, it is the duty of political parties such as the Ang Kapatiran Party to work for the establishment of good structures in government by crafting sound laws and ensure their implementation.  The Ang Kapatiran Party believes that there are many sinful structures that needs to be eradicated: pork barrel system, political dynasties, nontransparency and nonaccountability in governance, proliferation of loose firearms, and the RH law.  Please visit the Ang Kapatiran Party website for more detailed discussions of these issues.

7.  Is not Politics dirty?  How can Politics be a Vocation?

Politics has been perennially associated with the word “dirty,” because it is in politics that one meets  political butterflies, balimbings, rumor-mongers, character assassins, vote-buyers, boot-lickers, mud-slingers, and plastic men.  It is in politics that one crosses paths with druglords, warlords, and church groups crying, “Praise the Lord!”  Politics, indeed, is a dirty world–but a dirty world in need of redemption.  As JC de los Reyes wrote:

Please don’t be too mesmerized with track record and political experience. In Philippine politics, decades in power and experience means political survival, immoral compromise and corruption (jueteng payola). Track record often times is financed by the infamous pork barrel fund. Then they say, “I did this, I did that…” The big question is, what did you do and what will you do to contribute to PRINCIPLED POLITICS, a term that has been gagged side-lined and waylaid by trapos and demagogues.

For JC de los Reyes, politics can be a vocation, a path to holiness, for it is in politics that one can practice the corporal and spiritual works of mercy on the scale of the barangay, the city, the province, and the country.  Most of the corporal works of mercy–feed the hungry, give drink to the thirsty, clothe the naked, harbour the harbourless, visit the sick, ransom the captive, bury the dead–are handled by government and institutions such as the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) and the Philippine General Hospital (PGH).  On the other hand, most of the spiritual works of mercy–instruct the ignorant, counsel the doubtful, admonish sinners, bear wrongs patiently, forgive offences willingly, comfort the afflicted, pray for the living and the dead–are primarily the duties of the Catholic Church; the instruction of the ignorant is primarily addressed by Catholic Schools and it was only after the Americans took over the Philippine colony that the State intervened in education through the Public School System and the establishment of state universities such as the University of the Philippines.

JC de los Reyes with a supporter

8. What is the end or the ultimate goal of Politics?

The ultimate goal of politics is the salvation of man, because as St. Irenaeus said, “the great glory of God is man fully alive.” And this is not only in the here and now with the Millenium Development Goals and Happiness Index, but also in the life hereafter–heaven.  St. Ignatius tells us in his Spiritual Exercises to always begin with the end in mind.  And for a Catholic politician like JC de los Reyes, the end is the Last Judgment.  This would be terrifying thought for a politician who has not exercised his duties to his neighbors during their lives on earth:

Then he will say to those on his left, ‘Depart from me, you accursed, into the eternal fire prepared for the devil and his angels.42k For I was hungry and you gave me no food, I was thirsty and you gave me no drink,43 a stranger and you gave me no welcome, naked and you gave me no clothing, ill and in prison, and you did not care for me.’44* Then they will answer and say, ‘Lord, when did we see you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or naked or ill or in prison, and not minister to your needs?’ 45 He will answer them, ‘Amen, I say to you, what you did not do for one of these least ones, you did not do for me.’ (Mt 25:41-45)

With this end in mind, a Catholic politician like JC de los Reyes then performs his duties as demanded by his office, and prays the Prayer for Generosity of St. Ignatius:

Lord, teach me to be generous. Teach me to serve you as you deserve; to give and not to count the cost, to fight and not to heed the wounds, to toil and not to seek for rest, to labor and not to ask for reward, save that of knowing that I do your will. Amen

As JC de los Reyes wrote:

The most profound victory not only for the Philippines but for humanity is if Ang Kapatiran Party can produce politicians or more aptly, political missionaries who have the purest of hearts and intentions, who do things not for votes but intensely out of love and compassion. Those who will ‘decrease, so He might increase,’ those who will ‘not let their right hand know what their left hand is doing,’ those who are ‘not lukewarm but cold or hot,’ those ‘who let their yes mean yes, and no mean no,’ and perhaps, those who will assume a faith journey whose victory is ‘now but not yet.’

That is why for JC de los Reyes of Ang Kapatiran Party, politics is a vocation.

(Full disclosure: The author, Dr. Quirino Sugon Jr., is an Assistant Professor of the Department of Physics of Ateneo de Manila University.  He finished his BS Physics (1997), MS Physics (1999), and Ph.D. in Physics (2010)  in Ateneo de Manila University.  Though he is not an official member of the Ang Kapatiran Party, Dr. Sugon campaigns online for the Ang Kapatiran senatorial candidates JC de los Reyes, Lito Yap David, and Marwil Llasos.)

Connect the dots: Obama, Planned Parenthood, and the RH Law

Obama on protecting children: Gun Control and Planned Parenthood speeches

A Summary of past events:

• Obama did not support a bill banning partial birth abortion.
• Obama meets with Aquino and gives development package.
• Aquino supports the RH Bill.
• Planned Parenthood lobbied for the passage of the RH Bill.
• Planned Parenthood is the largest abortion provider in the US.
• Obama speaks at a Planned Parenthood gathering.

Connect the dots.

Planned Parenthood knows what the elite of our country refuses to acknowledge: promote contraception and demand for abortion will rise. If a condom has 1% failure rate then 1 in 100 intercourse will fail and may lead to pregnancy. If intercourse is once a week, then within 100 weeks a condom will fail, which is about 2 years. If intercourse is once a day, then a condom will fail 1 in 100 days which is 3 months and 10 days. Even if you make condoms 0.1% failure rate, 1 in 1,000 intercourse will fail: that’s within 1,000 days or 3 years if you use condoms everyday or within 21 years if once a week. If you don’t want babies in the first place (that’s why you use condoms), then the baby once conceived becomes for you a nuisance that must be removed through abortion. In other words, contraception will ultimately lead to abortion because contraceptives fail. Indeed, as Fr. Hardon, SJ said:

I’m saying much more than meets the ears. What I am saying is that through the widespread, all but universal, practice of contraception, certainly in the once-Christian Western world, the very norms of morality have been changed. Instead of God determining what is right or wrong, it is now each person’s own will which is sovereign! So that, once contraception has been morally justified, and become even laudable and praiseworthy — hear it and weep — there is now no crime, no crime, that the same human mind cannot justify and that the civil laws created by human beings cannot legalize.

This is not difficult to imagine.  After the RH Bill was railroaded in the Congress and the Senate upon the orders of President Noynoy Aquino, the RH Bill supporters became more brazen: they are now openly pushing for divorce and same-sex marriage in mocking defiance of the Catholic Church, confidently saying, “There is no Catholic Vote!”  Once  Pro-RH Bill legislators can destroy the natural family–the family where each baby is welcomed with joy and each old parent is taken cared of until death–as what happened in France, then there is nothing anymore preventing them from passing laws for the legalization of abortion and euthanasia as well.

Planned Parenthood knows the numbers. It has a good business model–by good meaning it churns out profits in millions of dollars. Planned Parenthood knows that if it gets men and women accept contraceptives, then they will soon accept abortion as well, as the experience in US, Europe, and other countries has shown. And for Planned Parenthood, abortion–the killing of the unborn–means money and each pregnant is a potential client. That is why Planned Parenthood is always on the lookout for babies or for countries with many babies, such as the Philippines.  And all these with US Government’s financial support.

Planned Parenthood is like the Aswang of Filipino Folklore. The aswang awaits in the night, sniffing the air for the smell of ripe jackfruit–the smell of a pregnant woman. When it smells one, it becomes giddy with the scent, and flies to the house where the scent comes from. And there perched on the nipa roof, the aswang lowers its syringe-like tongue, sucking the amniotic fluid in the womb until the baby is delivered dead, stillborn–much like what happens in abortion clinics where they use syringe to insert salt solution to the amniotic fluid which burns the baby’s lungs and skin. If abortion fails, the baby can be partially delivered with its head still inside the woman’s body, then the baby’s brains are sucked out through a syringe–a procedure called partial birth abortion that Obama supports. And if by chance it happens that the baby is born alive, since the baby is not wanted, he will just be left to die in cold and hunger. If the abortionist is kind like Gosnell, he can simply break the babies spine by puncturing the neck–something short of decapitation–the form of mercy killing in the days of the Samurai code of honor, though this time it is the woman’s code of honor, with the baby as the badge of dishonor that must be removed from the face of the earth, though not from the memory where there it shall forever haunt until confessed.

So let us rethink again our support for the RH law and why we shall vote the politicians who supported such law. What are our real reasons? Is it because I am a big fan of Noynoy Aquino and he is the face of good governance and anti-corruption, so that whatever he says is good? Is it because my teachers in Ateneo and La Salle say so and I really admire them so I will believe anything they say? Is it because the Catholic Church is against the RH Law and anything that the Catholic Church stands for is what I shall embrace to show my rebellion as a true free thinker unbounded by dogmas of a medieval institution? Is it because Lagman is a Bicolano and I am also a Bicolano, so I must also support the RH law like Lagman? Is it because Risa Hontiveros is pretty and well-educated and she supports the RH law, so that’s why I also want to be like Risa Hontiveros and support the RH law? There are many underlying reasons to our support for the RH law. We have to uncover them, unearth them from our subconscious, and put them under the light of day by writing them down. So I suggest we use the Toyota’s 5 Why process by filling in the blanks:

I support the RH law.  (Why?)

1. because _______________________. (Why?)
2. because _______________________. (Why?)
3. because _______________________. (Why?)
4. because _______________________. (Why?)
5. because _______________________.

The last answer is the real reason. Try this exercise. It may be cathartic.

Catholicity rankings of Philippine senatorial candidates and political parties using Catholic Vote data

 

Catholic index of senatorial candidates based on updated Catholic Vote data published 12 May 2013

UPDATE 12 May 2013

These are the Catholicity rankings of senatorial candidates based on the updated Catholic Vote data published last May 12, 2013.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-frc1/482644_171759259651048_911604752_n.jpg

The parameters of interest are “Reproductive Health Law”, “Divorce”, and “Same-Sex Marriage”. For each “No” answer, I replace it by +1; for each “Yes” answer I replace it by -1. The sum of the scores is the Catholic Index with +3 as Catholic (agrees with the teachings of the Catholic Church) and -3 as anti-Catholic. I arranged the groups into Team Buhay (+3 Catholic Index), Team Agaw-Buhay (+1 or +2 Catholic Index), and Team Patay (0, -1, -2, and -3 Catholic Index). Please share the table. Thank you very much. Each vote counts. Let us show them that Catholic Vote exists.

Let us vote only those with +3 Catholic Index and forget about the rest. Be sure to include in your list the four senatorial candidates and the party-list supported by Filipinos for Life:

For senators: #9 David, #10 de los Reyes, #20 Llasos, and #23 Magsaysay (Mitos)
For Party-List: #42 Ang Pro-Life.

 

ARCHIVE 24 May 2013

by Quirino Sugon Jr. [1,2]

Abstract

In this paper, I propose a simple ranking system for Philippine senatorial candidates based on the candidates’ opposition to the Reproductive Health Law, divorce, and same-sex marriage, as compiled by Catholic Vote Philippines. In this system, we replace the thumbs up icon by +1 and the thumbs down icon by -1, then add all the ratings for each candidate get a scale from -3 to +3 at intervals of 1 unit, with -3 as anti-Catholic and +3 as Catholic. We refer to this scale as the Catholicity scale. We then group candidates according to political parties and compute the average party stand on the issues. We add the average party stand to the candidate’s stand to arrive at the party-influenced stand of the candidate. Finally, we compute the Catholicity of the party-influenced stand of the candidate and rank the senatorial candidates accordingly.

Read the full paper:

Catholicity rankings of Philippine senatorial candidates and political parties using Catholic Vote data

(DISCLAIMER: The opinions, equations, and senatorial candidate rankings published by the author in this paper may not reflect the opinions of Manila Observatory, Ateneo de Manila University, and the Catholic Vote Philippines.)

[1] Upper Atmosphere Dynamics Program, Manila Observatory, Ateneo de Manila University Campus, Loyola Heights, Quezon City, Philippines

[2] Department of Physics, School of Science and Engineering, Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights, Quezon City, Philippines

Date Published: 25 April 2013, Feast of St. Mark the Evangelist

Catholicity rankings of the stands of senatorial candidates added to the stands of the (average) party persona for the three issues: anti RH law, anti-divorce, and anti same-sex marriage.

Catholicity ranking of the stands of each senatorial candidate on anti RH law, anti-divorce, and anti same-sex marriage.

Catholicity ranking of the total stands of the candidates of each political party regarding anti RH law, anti-divorce, and anti same-sex marriage.

Catholicity ranking of stands of the average candidate of political parties on anti RH law, anti-divorce, and anti same-sex marriage.

JC de los Reyes for senator: Iboto si JC dahil pogi?

JC de los Reyes for Senator: Pogi poster

Senatorial candidate Lito Yap David on Catholic Vote, gun control, senate experience, and political dynasty

Lito Yap David in GMA News To Go In Depth dated Jan 23, 2013

[I transcribed the interview of Lito David in GMA's News To Go which was uploaded in You Tube January 23, 2013.  I directly translated to English while transcribing.  I hope this transcript would be useful to others who wish to know more about the Senatorial Candidate Lito David of Ang Kapatiran Party.]

1.  What for you is the biggest problem in our country?

Poverty which is the fruit of corruption is the biggest problem of our country.  Thus, we must strive to remove corruption so that we can give solution to the problem of poverty of our citizens.

2.  You were are representative or member of the Ang Kapatiran Party which has religious orientation.  I assume that you have been an anti-RH advocate?

That is true.

3.  Why? So you believe that there is a Catholic Vote? 

It was proven in 1995.  Senator Flavier should have been No.  1, but he ended up No. 5 in that election.  This 2010, the poster girl of the RH campaign and the poster boys of the RH campaign–those three lost: Risa Hontiveros, Nerio Acosta, and Ruffy Biazon.  Negative Catholic vote was silent before, and did not became noisy.  But it happened.

4. But we can say that there are Pro-RH also won and the RH itself won.

The pro RH’s win, Howie, in the previous months we cannot say was not an honest vote.  As far as we know, because we were there, many of them there were intimidated or bribed to vote in favor  of RH.

5.  So there was bribery?

Yes.  It was clear.  It was not denied by the palace, even if we said it many times in the TV and radio, that they were there to threaten the others that if they will not vote Pro, they better not come; otherwise their pork barrel will not be released.  That was the thing that happened before.

6.  Do you possess a gun?

Me, no.  Ever since I never had a gun.

7.  What is your view on gun ownership and proliferation of guns in the society?

It was due to our allowing this culture.  But the Filipino culture is peace-loving.  But we only allowed a few to own guns.  The stand of Ang Kapatiran Party is not to outlaw guns and gun ownership, but to regulate well the bringing of guns in public.  The permit to carry is what should be regulated–that is what we are pushing for.

8.  Why are you immediately running for the senate? You have no experience in elections.  You have not yet run before.

This is my second time.  In 2010 I also ran under the Ang Kapatiran Party as one of the senatorial candidates.  I was instructed by the party to run again.  If it is experience and competence in crafting of laws, I already have a long experience.  I spent 10 years working in the senate, there are many laws that I took part in crafting.  There  are also many laws that I primarily finished. But because I am only a staff, I could not own the writing of the law. We are the background workers that make these laws.

9.  So what are tyourhe priorities if you enter the senate?

We have many priorities: the prohibition of political dynasty, control of ownership and use of guns, the passage of freedom of information law, the prohibition of the pork barre–these are some of the items that we shall really push for.  For me, personally, I wish to focus on the creation of frameworks for the use of land and water resources.  Up to this time, before I left senate, I already finished that proposal.  It was already in the senate floor.  But the problem is some senators did not find it important.  But for me it is important because this will give us true progress in our country.

10.  You oppose political dynasty, but you have a member in Ang Kapatiran, one senatorial candidate, JC delos Reyes who is a member of the Gordon Political Family.  Would you oppose his running again if the Anti-Dynasty Law gets passed?

He is the one who said that if the Anti-Dynasty Law gets passed, he said he will not run if Senator Gordon is there.

11.  Ok. We have a Miss Universe portion on a lighter portion regarding the character and personality.  When was the last time you cried?

Just the other day.  When I looked back to the length of time for my fight for the betterment of our society, sometimes I feel tired.  I started at 17 years old.  Many times I was nearly killed.  Before I fought for an ideology for our citizens.  Now I am fighting for the Faith for our citizens.

12.   What is the trait that you don’t like with your self?

Sometimes, I do procrastinate.  I have a problem with that.  But I was able to work against it.

13.  Do you have something to change in your past, what is it?

There are many things that I wish to change, that is why I am here.  This is my way to pay my sins to my fellowmen and to God.

Thank you, Lito David of Ang Kapatiran Party.

Pork Barrel System: Should we scrap it or do we have an alternative?

JC Delos Reyes on Pork Barrel System

“[The pork barrel] is left to the discretion of legislators who are politically motivated to put the money in projects that would make them popular. That’s the problem: It’s an immoral system.”–JC Delos Reyes, Senatorial Candidate of Ang Kapatiran Party.

In the Philippines, the pork barrel of each senator is Php 200 million and that of each representative is 70 million (Wikipedia).  Last 2011, for example, the Department of Budget and Management showed that 8 of the 23 senators spent at least 100 million of their Priority Development Assistance Fund (PDAF).  Here’s a sample of how the senators spent from Yahoo News:

Angara allocated P40 million for the construction of a school building, multi-purpose pathways, and installation of pipes and tanks for water supply in Aurora; Lapid spent P31 million for infrastructure projects including the rehabilitation of a hospital, and construction of a school building and line canal in Pampanga; while Recto set aside P45 million for concreting of roads and purchasing of facilities for police stations in Batangas.

On the other hand, Estrada gave away P50 million in financial assistance to indigent farmers through the Department of Agriculture.

Honasan spent P40 million for the planting of jatropha, a plant touted as a source of biofuel but later discovered that it was not commercially viable. The Arroyo administration reportedly wasted more than P1 billion for this project.

Sotto set aside P28.5 million for infrastructure and educational projects in Pampanga, home province of his wife, actress Helen Gamboa.

Villar meanwhile allocated P39 million for scholarship programs in different provinces

The Department of Budget and Management has issued a National Budget Circular  last February 20, 2012 entitled, “Guidelines on the Release of Funds Chargeable Against the Priority Development Assistance Fund for FY 2012.”  The implementing agency can be the LGU (e.g. Provincial Governor or Mayor).  So what basically happens is that a senator or congressman has a project and he asks an LGU to implement the project.  In doing so, the LGU becomes beholden to the senator or congress who made that fund available to the LGU’s constituency.   If the senator or congressmen is at odds with the LGU, then access by the LGU to PDAF can be cut-off.  There are many things you can do with a 200 million or a 70 million.   Thus, a senator or congressman wields a considerable clout over the LGU’s.  In effect what they are saying before elections is this: “Support my candidacy and you will have a share in my PDAF.  Support me not and not a centavo you shall receive from me.”

Do we have other alternatives to this pork barrel system?  What I propose is this: remove the pork barrel of each senator and congressmen and give it directly to the LGUs.  Since the main purpose of the PDAF is to prioritize the poor, the money can be distributed to the LGU’s per capita, that is, according to the number of constituents.  Each barangay will then have its own allotment depending on the number of its constitutents.  The implementing agency becomes the mayors office or the governor’s office.  The money will be given provided that the Barangay Council gives a project proposal and the progress of the project is monitored.  All detailed costs of the project shall be made available in public through a website, with pictures of accomplishments.  I think this can be done.  The governors and mayors already have automatic budgets from the national government.  They can use these for making projects beyond the barangay level.  What senators and congressmen should therefore focus on are projects that are national or regional in scope that would affect the whole nation.  This is the principle of subsidiarity: let small groups handle what they can at their level, and the government only intervenes on the national or regional level.

Question regarding Pope Benedict XVI’s resignation

Question by May:

I haven’t been in touch with what’s going on with pope benedict. so when i’ve known just the other day that he’s resigning as pope i googled why…then i came up with this article that said said something like at last he’s stepping down because he cant bear his guilt anymore of his hiding or not doing something with those priests, bishops and cardinals guilty f wrong doings (abuse of power and sexual abuse). so i’m pretty sure the writer isn’t catholic. and instead of reading further more of whatever comes up in google, i thought i might as well ask you..if there’s anything more that you can tell me unless it’s just but his age and strength that’s why the pope is resigning. of course i love pope benedict and his focus on evangelization.

Reply:

Regarding Pope Benedict XVI’s resignation, your guess is as good as mine. As far as I know, he already stated about its possibility three years ago:

“Cardinal Ratzinger, in his 2010 book-length interview Light of the World, had told the German journalist Peter Seewald that if a pope “realizes that he is no longer physically, psychologically, and spiritually capable of handling the duties of his office, then he has a right and, under some circumstances, also an obligation to resign” (p. 30). ” (TFP)

The reasons that he stated for his resignation this year 2013 are the same:

“After having repeatedly examined my conscience before God, I have come to the certainty that my strengths, due to an advanced age, are no longer suited to an adequate exercise of the Petrine ministry…In today’s world, subject to so many rapid changes and shaken by questions of deep relevance for the life of faith, in order to govern the bark of St. Peter and proclaim the Gospel, both strength of mind and body are necessary, strength which in the last few months, has deteriorated in me to the extent that I have had to recognize my incapacity to adequately fulfill the ministry entrusted to me.” (Catholic News)

So I don’t think there is any surprise here. He is only being consistent.

For your comfort in these troubled times, you may like to read Don Bosco’s Vision of the Two Pillars.

 

 

ALMS: Latin Mass on 17 Jan 2013, 6 pm at Ateneo de Manila University

Latin Mass on 17 Jan 2013, Thursday, 6 pm, at the Oratory of St. Ignatius of Loyola in Loyola House of Studies, Ateneo de Manila University