Archive for January 2nd, 2010
The Pulse Asia survey for the first week of December 2009 results: Aquino (45%), Villar (23%), Estrada (19%), and Teodoro (5%). (balita.ph)
Estrada and Villar has the same message: they appeal to the poor, the masa. Thus, we expect that their ratings will roughly be the same: 23% vs 19%.
Aquino and Teodoro has a lopsided discrepancy: 45% vs 5%. The reason for this that Aquino has positioned himself as a man of character and this character is defined as being anti-Gloria. It is true that being the son of two Philippine national heroes Ninoy and Cory Aquino helps, but being anti-Gloria takes away the votes of people who would have admired Gibo for his Galing (competence) and Talino (Intelligence), for Gibo would not disown President Gloria who gave him the chance to run for presidency. If people will not vote for Gibo because of Gloria, and they don’t like the pro-masa message of Villar and Estrada, the only person that they will vote for is Noynoy.
Thus, to win the presidency, Gibo should focus on Noynoy and forget about Villar and Estrada.
It would be fatal for Gibo to be ingratitude to Gloria: he would lose his political machinery. This is what happened to Escudero when he despised the NPC; he was left out cold.
To defeat Noynoy, Gibo must redefine the meaning of the word “character” from being “anti-Gloria” to something else. This would hopefully reposition Gibo vs Noynoy and the tide shall turn.
Noynoy Aquino is not as competent and intelligent as Gibo. This is how Gibo is currently packaged. But only 5% will accept this as sufficient to become president.
Noynoy Aquino is supported by diverse pressure groups with their own individual interests. Noynoy’s ideas and government platform are made not by Noynoy but by these pressure groups. He is their mouthpiece. Gibo, on the other hand, has his own ideas and platform of government. His political party will support him regardless of whatever he thinks is good for the country, because Gibo is perceived to be intelligent and competent.
To defeat Noynoy, Gibo must divide Noynoy’s supporters.
Noynoy’s Achilles’ heel is his support to the Reproductive Health bill. The Catholic Church is very concerned about this. The Church tried to talk to Noynoy about this several times, but Noynoy is adamant.
Gibo was also vocal in his support to the Reproductive Health bill. Then he wavered together with his wife. He will not anymore support the bill as it is; he wants to have certain punitive restrictions removed. What is the effect of this decision on his ratings? None. Because Gibo is seen as competent and intelligent. This wavering is only a sign of his intelligence. Gibo’s political machinery is still intact.
Gibo has the support of the military, because he was once the Secretary of National Defense. Gibo has the political machinery; he inherited it from Gloria. If Gibo can win the Catholic Church to his side, the scales may tip in his favor.
The Western Civilization is built on three pillars: Roman administration, Greek philosophy, and Jewish morals as represented by Christianity. Gibo has the administrative competence and the philosophical intelligence. But his presidential campaign would not stand without a moral pillar.
To defeat Noynoy, Gibo must, like Constantine, mark the shield of his legions with the sign of Christ and cross the Milvian bridge. To waver is to fall. To delay is to lose. Gibo must give up trying to hold to opposites using nuances: Gibo must abandon the Reproductive Health Bill, not because of its punitive provisions, but because of its contraceptive mentality itself. Gibo must stop thinking of the new born child as a national liability but as a human resource, a manpower. The national contraception program espoused by the bill will, as Pope Paul VI prophesied in his Humanae Vitae, only weaken the family by promoting pre-marital sex and marital infidelity. Gibo makes it clear that he does not support abortion, but what is abortion but the last recourse when artificial contraception fails?
If Gibo will campaign against the contraceptive mentality itself, he will have the bishops behind his back. By doing so, Gibo will have redefined the meaning of “character” from being “anti-Gloria” to being “pro-life, pro-family, pro-morality”. Character is never defined with respect to a person but with respect to unchangeable truths about man. It is a scandal for the faithful to see a Catholic Presidential candidate receive holy communion when his beliefs on artificial contraception is against the explicit teachings of the Catholic Church as taught by Pope Paul VI in his Humanae Vitae.
When the bishops make the list of candidates not to vote because of their support to the Reproductive Health Bill, Noynoy would top the list: Noynoy is running for the highest position of President and his surname starts with letter A. The pro-life supporters of Noynoy will then see the folly of supporting a presidential candidate who is not pro-life when there is another one who is: Gibo. And Gibo is more competent and more intelligent than Noynoy.
By campaigning against contraceptive mentality, Gibo would cut Noynoy’s voter base into two and the presidential campaign would be evenly matched at about 20% rating for each candidate. When this happens, Gibo can sprint ahead by emphasizing his Galing at Talino, and thereby win the presidency.